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Interpretable prediction of gross motor coordination in children aged 9–10 using machine learning and SHAP: The influence of physical fitness, basic coordination, and executive function

kinesiology
pediatrics
data-mining-and-machine-learning
mental-health
sports-medicine

Abstract

Background. Gross motor coordination is a fundamental component of children's physical development and motor skill acquisition, closely associated with physical fitness, cognitive function, and overall health. This study aimed to examine the influence of physical fitness, basic coordination, and executive function on gross motor coordination and to evaluate the predictive performance of machine learning models compared with traditional multiple linear regression (MLR).

Methods. A total of 167 children (85 boys and 82 girls), aged 9–10 years, participated in the study. Gross motor coordination was assessed using the Körperkoordinationtest für Kinder (KTK). Physical fitness (e.g., 50 m sprint, standing long jump, sit-ups), basic coordination (e.g., kinesthetic differentiation, spatial orientation, balance), and executive function (e.g., inhibitory control, working memory) were measured as predictors. Model performance was evaluated using R², standardized estimation error (SEE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to interpret the best-performing model and analyze feature importance and nonlinear effects.

Results. Among the models, Random Forest Regression (RFR) achieved the highest performance (R² = 0.533, SEE = 8.350, RMSE = 6.075, MAE = 4.850). SHAP analysis revealed that spatial orientation, body mass index (BMI), dynamic balance, standing long jump, and closed-eye balance were the most important predictors, with spatial orientation, BMI, and closed-eye balance showing notable nonlinear effects. Executive function contributed minimally to prediction.

Conclusion. Spatial-body integration, physical fitness, and postural control are primary determinants of gross motor coordination in children, while cognitive regulation plays a secondary role. Training programs aiming to enhance gross motor coordination should emphasize spatial orientation, body weight management, balance, and lower-limb strength.

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